Excellently and clearly communicated. This post reads like a winning courtroom argument for No Lockdowns a la Perry Mason, you had me hooked through each explanation and chart. Thank you for helping us clearly see the collateral damage done and giving us the data support to go to our elected officials if lockdowns are mandated or proposed again. It's immoral and criminal that the CDC isn't using or analyzing their own data, they are culpable.
Fascinating post and with so much information. I honestly believe the draconian lockdowns contributed to excess deaths in 2020. Before Covid, my now 81 year old partner used to get a regular yearly checkup. Then, suddenly these annual checkups stopped. His long time doctor quit in the fall of 2021 and now he sees two different doctors if he can. It seems, that these doctors will do anything to avoid seeing a patient in person and would prefer a phone consultation. He eventually managed to see one of the doctors in early January of 2022 and had a full checkup. At this time he had also developed a growth on his face and the doctor suggested it could be skin cancer and made an appointment for him for five months later! I suggested he use a product I always have on hand which is a topical coloidial silver ointment. A few weeks later the growth completely vanished. He wondered, if at this point if he needed the appointment with the skin specialist and tried to make an appointment with his current GP. The idiot who books appointments suggested he have a phone consultation for this! He refused and insisted he see the doctor. They reluctantly agreed and he got to see said doctor in person. He is triple vaccinated and I have chosen not to be. I have made sure during the last two years to ensure we are taking all recommended supplements and vitamins. So far, in the last three years neither of us has had so much as a sniffle. In fact, we seem to be pretty healthy, no thanks to the medical system. The point of my post is perhaps a lot of these excess deaths during 2020 would have been avoided if we hadn't had repetitive lockdowns and a very unwilling group of health professionals. I live in Canada and getting your own doctor is almost impossible; I actually don't have one. What really angers me is the constant barrage of TV "expert doctors" that we have been subjected to for the last two years. Perhaps they should get off the media, give up their five minutes of fame and actually do their job.
Thank you for this important research. I look forward to future findings. I know it's not your area of focus, but I again note that "excess deaths" (age 25 to 44) were up significantly in the first 12 weeks of 2020 (compared to same weeks in 2019). This is before Covid was supposed to even be in this country. What caused deaths to spike 12 to 15 percent in some weeks in this age cohort? Some might attribute this spike to a really bad flu season, but the CDC now says the 2019-2020 flu season was one of the mildest in years. FWIW, I don't believe this. Influenza like illness (ILI) was "severe" and "widespread" across America from November through February into March if you look at contemporary weekly ILI reports from various states. Again, could some of these excess deaths in the first 12 weeks of 2020 have been caused by COVID? I think so. This would have enormous implications if true. Certainly, the "lockdowns" of mid-March couldn't have "slowed" or "stopped" any virus spread if the virus had already spread across the country months earlier. In counting "waves" of this virus, it's entirely possible that the "first wave" hasn't even been counted ... and was completely missed by the "experts." Then again, maybe at least a few of them know this and are are covering up this little trivial detail.
Haven’t seen the data in early 2020 young excess deaths you speak of, but likely not Covid since that does not tend to kill young people. Can you show the source of your info?
Here are deaths in Michigan from first 12 weeks of 2020 for the 75 to 84 age cohort. This IS where you would expect to see a spike in deaths if my Covid "early spread" hypothesis is correct. I wrote this data down by hand from a spread sheet from (I think) the Department of Health in Michigan. Alas, for some inexplicable reason, I didn't copy and paste the link. So someone might be able to help me out and find raw data (absolute numbers) on deaths in Michigan by age cohorts comparison Y o Y. I can promise you I didn't make these numbers up. I think the spike in deaths in the elderly in the first 12 weeks of 2020 in Michigan is very significant. I compared to the 5-year average. I did another analysis where I just compared to 2019 (in most weeks, there is also a big YoY spike in these 12 weeks). Here are some of my summaries:
Among those 75 to 84 in Michigan, deaths in these weeks in 2020 increased by:
2-1: 12.1 percent above five-year-norm.
2-8: 2.4 percent above five-year norm
2-15: 15.1 percent above five-year norm
2-22: 13.4 percent above five-year-norm.
As of Week 10 (ending March 7th), deaths in Michigan from all ages were “100 percent” of the “expected” figure. Which seems to show there were no “excess” deaths or anything going on unusual. However, in the 75 to 84 age cohort in Michigan on this date, deaths were up 10.1 percent from the five-year average.
The following week (Week 11, which ended March 14) deaths for “all ages” were actually “99 percent” of the expected figure in Michigan. However, among Michigan residents aged 75 to 84, deaths recorded in this week were up 16.5 percent.
Conclusion/hypothesis: Deaths WERE spiking in this age demo (certainly above the “expected death” figures). If more people were contracting the virus that causes COVID by mid-to-late January, subsequent “Covid” deaths might be expected to be recorded beginning in February (as the average time span from first symptom to death is about 3 weeks to 25 days).
The largest percentage increase in “excess” deaths (compared to the five-year norm) among those in Michigan aged 75 to 84 was 16.5 percent for the accounting week ending March 14th (deaths happened March 8th - 14th).
Working backwards, this might indicate that any possible “Covid deaths” were among people who contracted the virus somewhere around mid to late February.
However, it should be noted that a clear “spike” in “excess deaths” among those age 75 to 84 can be seen even earlier.
“Excess” deaths by week, Michigan, age cohort 75 to 84, expressed as percentage of the previous 5-year average for the same week:
Week 2 (ending January 11th): + 12.2 percent
Week 4 (ending January 25th): + 9.9 percent
Week 5 (ending February 1): + 11.4 percent
Week 7 (ending February 15): + 15.1 percent
Week 8 (ending Feb 22): + 13.4 percent
Week 10 (ending March 7): + 10.1 percent
Week 11 (ending March 14): + 16.5 percent
Week 12 (ending March 21s): + 15.1 percent
Note: Michigan did not record its first “confirmed” Covid death until Week 12 (ending March 21st. 21 deaths were reported by the end of the week March 21st). Any deaths before March 21st would NOT be recorded as “Covid deaths.” Or were not recorded as Covid deaths at the time.
Anyone who has relevant data can contact me. My email is listed at the end of the story I wrote on Tim and Brandie McCain at uncoverdcdotcom.
Here are two sources. I wrote the first article. Note that Tim McCain was 39 - he is in this cohort - and came close to death numerous times in early January. I agree Covid typically doesn't kill those 25 to 44, but some in this age demo do die. I'm not saying that ALL the "excess death" in this age cohort would be from COVID, but some of these deaths would have been. In other words, while McCain pulled through and did not die, no doubt some people were dying in January and February even in their late 30s and early 40s. These deaths were probably listed as from pneumonia or a respiratory virus. You would see - or expect to see - many more deaths in the cohort 65 and over. I think this happened too. For example, I found one source that listed deaths by age cohort (and by weeks) in Michigan. There was a very significant spike in the first 12 weeks of 2020 compared to the first 12 weeks of 2019.
Here’s the antibody survey that should have been front-page news then and now. It shows that 106 blood donors of the American Red Cross tested positive for antibodies after donating blood in mid-December 2019 and mid-January.
39 of these blood donor were from Washington, California and Oregon. All of these people donated blood to the American Red Cross between Dec. 13-16, 2019. As it takes at least two weeks for antibodies to develop, the assumption is most if not all of these people had contracted the virus that causes COVID by some point in November 2019 (if not earlier).
Excellent work. Thank you. I do wonder if there was more Covid than what was picked up. Here in Australia we had some cases that were positive for Covid but had extremely mild symptoms however they died suddenly often at home. Mostly I think they had underlining issues & Covid infection speeds up their demise. I do think that the spike protein by natural infection & vaccine is underestimated by many & is silently doing more damage than what we realise
( hence China being so draconian as I’m sure they know more than they are willing to say)
The Z codes for social determinants of health are part of the ICD-10 CM group, which is used for morbidity rather than mortality (i.e. medical insurance claims). The Z codes aren’t part of the ICD-10 mortality list. At least that is my understanding.
Excellently and clearly communicated. This post reads like a winning courtroom argument for No Lockdowns a la Perry Mason, you had me hooked through each explanation and chart. Thank you for helping us clearly see the collateral damage done and giving us the data support to go to our elected officials if lockdowns are mandated or proposed again. It's immoral and criminal that the CDC isn't using or analyzing their own data, they are culpable.
Excellent writeup. Looking forward to 2021 numbers.
Fantastic work. Thank you
I just found you Milo Mac and thank you for your work.
Fascinating post and with so much information. I honestly believe the draconian lockdowns contributed to excess deaths in 2020. Before Covid, my now 81 year old partner used to get a regular yearly checkup. Then, suddenly these annual checkups stopped. His long time doctor quit in the fall of 2021 and now he sees two different doctors if he can. It seems, that these doctors will do anything to avoid seeing a patient in person and would prefer a phone consultation. He eventually managed to see one of the doctors in early January of 2022 and had a full checkup. At this time he had also developed a growth on his face and the doctor suggested it could be skin cancer and made an appointment for him for five months later! I suggested he use a product I always have on hand which is a topical coloidial silver ointment. A few weeks later the growth completely vanished. He wondered, if at this point if he needed the appointment with the skin specialist and tried to make an appointment with his current GP. The idiot who books appointments suggested he have a phone consultation for this! He refused and insisted he see the doctor. They reluctantly agreed and he got to see said doctor in person. He is triple vaccinated and I have chosen not to be. I have made sure during the last two years to ensure we are taking all recommended supplements and vitamins. So far, in the last three years neither of us has had so much as a sniffle. In fact, we seem to be pretty healthy, no thanks to the medical system. The point of my post is perhaps a lot of these excess deaths during 2020 would have been avoided if we hadn't had repetitive lockdowns and a very unwilling group of health professionals. I live in Canada and getting your own doctor is almost impossible; I actually don't have one. What really angers me is the constant barrage of TV "expert doctors" that we have been subjected to for the last two years. Perhaps they should get off the media, give up their five minutes of fame and actually do their job.
Here in NYC where tee shirts with sayings flourish, a popular one now "Media is the Virus"
Thank you for this important research. I look forward to future findings. I know it's not your area of focus, but I again note that "excess deaths" (age 25 to 44) were up significantly in the first 12 weeks of 2020 (compared to same weeks in 2019). This is before Covid was supposed to even be in this country. What caused deaths to spike 12 to 15 percent in some weeks in this age cohort? Some might attribute this spike to a really bad flu season, but the CDC now says the 2019-2020 flu season was one of the mildest in years. FWIW, I don't believe this. Influenza like illness (ILI) was "severe" and "widespread" across America from November through February into March if you look at contemporary weekly ILI reports from various states. Again, could some of these excess deaths in the first 12 weeks of 2020 have been caused by COVID? I think so. This would have enormous implications if true. Certainly, the "lockdowns" of mid-March couldn't have "slowed" or "stopped" any virus spread if the virus had already spread across the country months earlier. In counting "waves" of this virus, it's entirely possible that the "first wave" hasn't even been counted ... and was completely missed by the "experts." Then again, maybe at least a few of them know this and are are covering up this little trivial detail.
Haven’t seen the data in early 2020 young excess deaths you speak of, but likely not Covid since that does not tend to kill young people. Can you show the source of your info?
Here are deaths in Michigan from first 12 weeks of 2020 for the 75 to 84 age cohort. This IS where you would expect to see a spike in deaths if my Covid "early spread" hypothesis is correct. I wrote this data down by hand from a spread sheet from (I think) the Department of Health in Michigan. Alas, for some inexplicable reason, I didn't copy and paste the link. So someone might be able to help me out and find raw data (absolute numbers) on deaths in Michigan by age cohorts comparison Y o Y. I can promise you I didn't make these numbers up. I think the spike in deaths in the elderly in the first 12 weeks of 2020 in Michigan is very significant. I compared to the 5-year average. I did another analysis where I just compared to 2019 (in most weeks, there is also a big YoY spike in these 12 weeks). Here are some of my summaries:
Among those 75 to 84 in Michigan, deaths in these weeks in 2020 increased by:
2-1: 12.1 percent above five-year-norm.
2-8: 2.4 percent above five-year norm
2-15: 15.1 percent above five-year norm
2-22: 13.4 percent above five-year-norm.
As of Week 10 (ending March 7th), deaths in Michigan from all ages were “100 percent” of the “expected” figure. Which seems to show there were no “excess” deaths or anything going on unusual. However, in the 75 to 84 age cohort in Michigan on this date, deaths were up 10.1 percent from the five-year average.
The following week (Week 11, which ended March 14) deaths for “all ages” were actually “99 percent” of the expected figure in Michigan. However, among Michigan residents aged 75 to 84, deaths recorded in this week were up 16.5 percent.
Conclusion/hypothesis: Deaths WERE spiking in this age demo (certainly above the “expected death” figures). If more people were contracting the virus that causes COVID by mid-to-late January, subsequent “Covid” deaths might be expected to be recorded beginning in February (as the average time span from first symptom to death is about 3 weeks to 25 days).
The largest percentage increase in “excess” deaths (compared to the five-year norm) among those in Michigan aged 75 to 84 was 16.5 percent for the accounting week ending March 14th (deaths happened March 8th - 14th).
Working backwards, this might indicate that any possible “Covid deaths” were among people who contracted the virus somewhere around mid to late February.
However, it should be noted that a clear “spike” in “excess deaths” among those age 75 to 84 can be seen even earlier.
“Excess” deaths by week, Michigan, age cohort 75 to 84, expressed as percentage of the previous 5-year average for the same week:
Week 2 (ending January 11th): + 12.2 percent
Week 4 (ending January 25th): + 9.9 percent
Week 5 (ending February 1): + 11.4 percent
Week 7 (ending February 15): + 15.1 percent
Week 8 (ending Feb 22): + 13.4 percent
Week 10 (ending March 7): + 10.1 percent
Week 11 (ending March 14): + 16.5 percent
Week 12 (ending March 21s): + 15.1 percent
Note: Michigan did not record its first “confirmed” Covid death until Week 12 (ending March 21st. 21 deaths were reported by the end of the week March 21st). Any deaths before March 21st would NOT be recorded as “Covid deaths.” Or were not recorded as Covid deaths at the time.
Anyone who has relevant data can contact me. My email is listed at the end of the story I wrote on Tim and Brandie McCain at uncoverdcdotcom.
Here are two sources. I wrote the first article. Note that Tim McCain was 39 - he is in this cohort - and came close to death numerous times in early January. I agree Covid typically doesn't kill those 25 to 44, but some in this age demo do die. I'm not saying that ALL the "excess death" in this age cohort would be from COVID, but some of these deaths would have been. In other words, while McCain pulled through and did not die, no doubt some people were dying in January and February even in their late 30s and early 40s. These deaths were probably listed as from pneumonia or a respiratory virus. You would see - or expect to see - many more deaths in the cohort 65 and over. I think this happened too. For example, I found one source that listed deaths by age cohort (and by weeks) in Michigan. There was a very significant spike in the first 12 weeks of 2020 compared to the first 12 weeks of 2019.
https://uncoverdc.com/2020/06/25/an-alabama-man-nearly-died-from-covid-19-the-first-week-in-january/
Here’s the antibody survey that should have been front-page news then and now. It shows that 106 blood donors of the American Red Cross tested positive for antibodies after donating blood in mid-December 2019 and mid-January.
39 of these blood donor were from Washington, California and Oregon. All of these people donated blood to the American Red Cross between Dec. 13-16, 2019. As it takes at least two weeks for antibodies to develop, the assumption is most if not all of these people had contracted the virus that causes COVID by some point in November 2019 (if not earlier).
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472
The bitter fruit of Fauci-ism.
Excellent, thank you very much.
I'm so grateful for this analysis. I eagerly await your next reports on the "with covid" and the 2021 data.
Excellent work. Thank you. I do wonder if there was more Covid than what was picked up. Here in Australia we had some cases that were positive for Covid but had extremely mild symptoms however they died suddenly often at home. Mostly I think they had underlining issues & Covid infection speeds up their demise. I do think that the spike protein by natural infection & vaccine is underestimated by many & is silently doing more damage than what we realise
( hence China being so draconian as I’m sure they know more than they are willing to say)
Fantastic info; thank you.
This is remarkable work. I'm looking forward to seeing more... but I'm not seeing any more posts on your substack?
NCVHS
September 10, 2021
Updated Recommendations for Immediate Action on ICD-11
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwintLCN4dD2AhWTKEQIHVhbC3gQFnoECAQQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fncvhs.hhs.gov%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2021%2F09%2FNCVHS-ICD-11-recommendations-for-HHS-Sept-10-2021-Final-508.pdf&usg=AOvVaw2Hmcl-wwN3V1mz1U2kAogT
This may be of interest to you.
Are CDC mortality indices limited to acute inpatient data?
Where is Z00-Z99?
The Z codes for social determinants of health are part of the ICD-10 CM group, which is used for morbidity rather than mortality (i.e. medical insurance claims). The Z codes aren’t part of the ICD-10 mortality list. At least that is my understanding.